Economic Growth, Population and Influence (Power)

The whole world is struggling with the Covid-19 pandemic, the horrors of the consequences of climate change not to mention the disaster that has currently befallen Afghanistan. This article focuses on our near-term future.

World Population Growth Rates 2020 to 2050

As can be seen from this chart, almost all of the world’s projected population growth will come from Asia (not including China) and Africa. Population changes in the rest of the world pale into insignificance compared to this growth.

Historically, the all-powerful British Empire was able to dominate the world with a relatively large cohesive population, and the fact that the Industrial Revolution started in Britain. No other country in Europe was able to match this. Italy and Germany only unified in 1871. The United States gained its independence from Britain in 1776, and its population then at 2.5 million grew exponentially year after year, mainly due to migration (including slavery) and the massive increase in immigration from Europe. As the poem by Emma Lazarus on the Statue of Liberty states: “Give me your tired, your poor, / Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” As with Britain over the years, there were also massive technological advances in the United States. The basis of the democratic free world’s growth was thus long-term sustainable population growth, coupled with technological improvements. 

As can be seen from the above figures, even taking an optimistic view, this democratic dominance is now at risk.

Since World War II, the United Nations, particularly the USA, has been committed to the security of the democratic world. Readers might recall that the two defeated protagonists of World War II, i.e. Germany and Japan, were converted to democracies by the victorious Allies and this has been sustained. There are still large numbers of American troops both in Japan and Germany, and they are welcome there. Added to this situation, there has been ongoing technological innovation throughout the Western-orientated democratic world, led by the USA.

The big question now is: are the American people willing to maintain the security blanket that they have helped provide democracy for the past seventy years? There are indications that their commitment to this security blanket is weakening: Obama’s lack of action on the ‘red line’ he declared in Syria in 2012, followed up by Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, is an indication that this commitment is less than secure. The current fiasco in Afghanistan just adds to this uncertainty.

What will happen to the  ‘Democratic West’ if the United States is no longer prepared to act as the world’s policeman? What will happen if American troops are withdrawn from Germany and Japan, for example? What is the future of NATO?

Maybe it’s time the rest of the democratic world looked after itself? In a recent book published in 2018, ‘The Jungle Grows Back’, Robert Kagan argues that the natural state of human affairs is for each tribe/community/race to individually look after themselves and that what the United States has done in the past seventy years,  is quite extraordinary in historical terms and. Thus if their security blanket is withdrawn, the world would revert to the chaos that prevailed earlier and resulted in the twentieth century’s two world wars. This might well suit Russia and China.

It seems that the ‘Democratic West’ has some choices to make.

There is going to be enormous pressure from Africa and Asia for people to move to the ‘Democratic West’, partly as a result of the poor economic outlook in many of the countries in those two continents, but more importantly because of the projected unprecedented population growth.

What will the ‘Democratic West’ do?

Will we allow an increase in the flow of migrants, helping to ensure our ongoing economic prosperity? Or will we maintain the very restrictive current regime? The probability is that any increases in current rates of migration will be very politically difficult, and so will be resisted. 

Japan is a good example: they currently admit almost no migrants at all. Germany did allow one million migrants into the country in 2015, not for philanthropic reasons but in order to prop up their declining population. This resulted in the growth of right-wing groups opposed to migration. ‘Brexit’ was driven mainly by migration issues. The proposed border wall on the US/Mexico border indicates a desire to limit migration from Latin America into the USA. Even if the ‘Democratic West’ does allow increased migration, in view of the number of people involved it may not solve the problem.

So what does the future look like?

The USA and the ‘Western Democracies’ will continue to be a powerful influence on democracy, but over the period in question (2020-2050) it will probably become a slowly declining force.

China will obviously still be a powerful player. However, the Chinese population is declining (some forecasts think at a higher rate than suggested in the chart above). It is also aging. Will they allow large migration from Africa or Asia? There is no evidence to suggest that it will.  

India’s population will continue to grow. It is democratic, though still has a very young population. Will India continue to support its democracy, even if the ‘Western Democracies’ gradually fade (as seems likely)? 

Africa is corrupt and poorly governed and will likely remain so – designed as it is to service an elite that, because of population growth, will become a smaller and smaller percentage of the population. One option – other than allowing increased migration – is for the ‘Democratic West’ to persuade some of the larger African countries (perhaps South Africa and Nigeria) that it is in their own best interests to control their population growth, and secondly to also eliminate corruption. How this is done is another question. 

It is possible that Asia (excluding China) will be able to manage their economies in the interests of their population. But will they want to or will they be forced to support China, or will they see it as being in their own interests to create stronger relations with the ‘Democratic West’? 

So there are many questions. Much will depend on how the United States responds to the current situation, and whether it will continue to provide the security blanket as it has done over the past seventy years.

As can be seen from this chart, almost all of the world’s projected population growth will come from Asia (not including China) and Africa. Population changes in the rest of the world pale into insignificance compared to this growth.

Historically, the all-powerful British Empire was able to dominate the world with a relatively large cohesive population, and the fact that the Industrial Revolution started in Britain. No other country in Europe was able to match this. Italy and Germany only unified in 1871. The United States gained its independence from Britain in 1776, and its population then at 2.5 million grew exponentially year after year, mainly due to migration (including slavery) and the massive increase in immigration from Europe. As the poem by Emma Lazarus on the Statue of Liberty states: “Give me your tired, your poor, / Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” As with Britain over the years, there were also massive technological advances in the United States. The basis of the democratic free world’s growth was thus long-term sustainable population growth, coupled with technological improvements. 

As can be seen from the above figures, even taking an optimistic view, this democratic dominance is now at risk.

Since World War II, the United Nations, particularly the USA, has been committed to the security of the democratic world. Readers might recall that the two defeated protagonists of World War II, i.e. Germany and Japan, were converted to democracies by the victorious Allies and this has been sustained. There are still large numbers of American troops both in Japan and Germany, and they are welcome there. Added to this situation, there has been ongoing technological innovation throughout the Western-orientated democratic world, led by the USA.

The big question now is: are the American people willing to maintain the security blanket that they have helped provide democracy for the past seventy years? There are indications that their commitment to this security blanket is weakening: Obama’s lack of action on the ‘red line’ he declared in Syria in 2012, followed up by Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, is an indication that this commitment is less than secure. The current fiasco in Afghanistan just adds to this uncertainty.

What will happen to the  ‘Democratic West’ if the United States is no longer prepared to act as the world’s policeman? What will happen if American troops are withdrawn from Germany and Japan, for example? What is the future of NATO?

Maybe it’s time the rest of the democratic world looked after itself? In a recent book published in 2018, ‘The Jungle Grows Back’, Robert Kagan argues that the natural state of human affairs is for each tribe/community/race to individually look after themselves and that what the United States has done in the past seventy years,  is quite extraordinary in historical terms and. Thus if their security blanket is withdrawn, the world would revert to the chaos that prevailed earlier and resulted in the twentieth century’s two world wars. This might well suit Russia and China.

It seems that the ‘Democratic West’ has some choices to make.

There is going to be enormous pressure from Africa and Asia for people to move to the ‘Democratic West’, partly as a result of the poor economic outlook in many of the countries in those two continents, but more importantly because of the projected unprecedented population growth.

What will the ‘Democratic West’ do?

Will we allow an increase in the flow of migrants, helping to ensure our ongoing economic prosperity? Or will we maintain the very restrictive current regime? The probability is that any increases in current rates of migration will be very politically difficult, and so will be resisted. 

Japan is a good example: they currently admit almost no migrants at all. Germany did allow one million migrants into the country in 2015, not for philanthropic reasons but in order to prop up their declining population. This resulted in the growth of right-wing groups opposed to migration. ‘Brexit’ was driven mainly by migration issues. The proposed border wall on the US/Mexico border indicates a desire to limit migration from Latin America into the USA. Even if the ‘Democratic West’ does allow increased migration, in view of the number of people involved it may not solve the problem.

So what does the future look like?

The USA and the ‘Western Democracies’ will continue to be a powerful influence on democracy, but over the period in question (2020-2050) it will probably become a slowly declining force.

China will obviously still be a powerful player. However, the Chinese population is declining (some forecasts think at a higher rate than suggested in the chart above). It is also aging. Will they allow large migration from Africa or Asia? There is no evidence to suggest that it will.  

India’s population will continue to grow. It is democratic, though still has a very young population. Will India continue to support its democracy, even if the ‘Western Democracies’ gradually fade (as seems likely)? 

Africa is corrupt and poorly governed and will likely remain so – designed as it is to service an elite that, because of population growth, will become a smaller and smaller percentage of the population. One option – other than allowing increased migration – is for the ‘Democratic West’ to persuade some of the larger African countries (perhaps South Africa and Nigeria) that it is in their own best interests to control their population growth, and secondly to also eliminate corruption. How this is done is another question. 

It is possible that Asia (excluding China) will be able to manage their economies in the interests of their population. But will they want to or will they be forced to support China, or will they see it as being in their own interests to create stronger relations with the ‘Democratic West’? 

So there are many questions. Much will depend on how the United States responds to the current situation, and whether it will continue to provide the security blanket as it has done over the past seventy years.