Immigration Policies in the Democratic West
Up to 500 people are still missing from a migrant boat that sank off Greece, the UN human rights office says.
According to spokesman Jeremy Laurence, a number of women and children were among those missing in the "horrific tragedy" that left 78 people dead.
This is obviously a nightmare for all concerned, not least of all the migrants themselves.
So where do we go from here?
From an African population of 300 million in 1950 to 1.2 billion today to a UN projected 2.4 billion by 2050 the issue of immigration from Africa ( and indeed the Middle East) will not go away.
The EU agency Frontex is directed to aggressively try to prevent migration with personnel stationed in various African and Middle Eastern countries, where they alert the police to see what can be done to stop people smugglers from operating.
Britain has come up with all sorts of unrealistic policies such as the plan to ship illegal migrants off to places like Rwanda.
None of this works.
In order to maintain populations each woman needs to produce 2.1 children in her lifetime. There isn’t a single democratic country that achieves this. Some examples:
Japan 1.3, UK 1.53, Germany 1.58, Italy 1.25, South Korea .81.
The consequence of this is that, without immigration, populations in the democracies will decline, some people might think that this is a good thing, but consider this:
Populations will also age and become less productive.
Sooner or later the populations of individual countries in Africa, such as Nigeria at a projected 400 million will dwarf that of individual countries in Europe and indeed any democracy such as Japan and Korea.
Africa will eventually produce an educated core who will gradually become more and more inventive and productive. Countries in the ‘global south’ will also be run by aggressive autocracies as many of them already are.
To cope with this situation, the democracies will also probably become more and more dependent on Africa and more autocratic - the signs are already there Trump, Johnson, Berlusconi, Orban, Bolsonaro, and Erdogan.
Is this what we want? No, of course not.
Is there an alternative? YES, certainly.
How about this:
An African population of 2.4 Billion is unsustainable. Africa is already endemically corrupt. This situation will lead to starvation, more civil wars (Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan) and massive increases in people wanting to escape countries that give them no possibility of a fulfilling and productive life.
Maybe Europe and Britain could consider this:
Persuade a small selection of countries, say, South Africa, Kenya and one or two others, that it is in their absolute best interests to make an effort to reduce population growth. Under the current situation, no African Country can even begin to feed themselves, let alone educate, or provide adequate medical services.
Some suggestions:
Women’s education will always lead to lower birth rates. For example, the Indian State of Kerala has a 95% literacy rate- population growth rate is zero. i.e. the population is being maintained at a sustainable level.
Set up, in those countries, a system that allows for a level of controlled migration to individual countries in Europe.
There needs to be a plan to tackle endemic corruption - this certainly applies to South Africa and Kenya and almost all African countries.
Successful implementation will provide a model for other countries to follow.
All this will require funding. As a start, some of the funds currently being wasted on the EU agency Frontex could be redirected, but it will certainly cost more than this.
With populations of Africa and the Middle East continuing to grow, the current situation is just going to get worse. Surely Europe cannot continue to tolerate more and more desperate people losing their lives in the Mediterranean and the English Channel.