Immigration: The Xenophobia Trap

There has been much discussion about the level of immigration into Australia. The political rhetoric is all about limiting the numbers of new arrivals.

Several countries to our North have done exactly that with potentially disastrous results:

Japan’s population peaked in 2020 at 128.5 million.

The 2025 forecast is 123 million, and the 2100 forecast is 75 million.

 South Korea’s population will peak in 2025 at 51.7 million.

The 2050 forecast is for 47 million, and the 2100 forecast is for 27 million.

Even China falls into the same trap:

China’s population peaked  in 2024 at 1.425 billion.

The 2050 forecast is 1.3 billion, and the 2100 forecast is forecast at 800 million.

In order to maintain current populations each woman needs to produce 2.1 children in her life..

Current Fertility rates:

Japan 1.20. South Korea .75; China 1.0

All those countries have actively discouraged immigration; they do not want to disturb the ‘homogenous nature’ of their populations. All have tried to encourage women to have more children, with absolutely no success. China, for example, abandoned its ‘one child’ policy in 2015 and encouraged families to have two or even three children, and yet the birthrate in China has continued to decline.

The consequences of the above policies are an ageing and declining workforce and the ever-increasing cost of caring for the elderly in their countries.

 Is this what we want for Australia?

The world's population is growing. Most of the growth comes from Africa. The fertility rate in Africa, for example, is more than 4, i.e., each woman produces four children in her lifetime.

There are daily reports, in Australia, of shortages of tradespeople, doctors, hospitality workers and so on.

The housing shortage is blamed on high levels of immigration. In 1996 I had my own house built in eight months, but it now takes two years or more to achieve the same thing, largely because of a shortage of tradespeople.

We seem to be going round and round in circles. The housing shortage is blamed on migrants, so we slow the arrival of migrants or at least pretend to. The housing shortage gets worse. We then allow a few more migrants into Australia. We build a few more houses. The housing shortage continues. We blame migrants for causing the shortage, and so the circus continues.

The bottom line is that with the Australian fertility rate at 1.48 (2024), the population will decline unless immigration continues. The average age of the Australian population in 1980 was 28.4; by 2030, it is forecast to be 39.5. So the country is aging as well.

All the Australian political parties promise an improving economy and a higher standard of living. How will this be achieved with a declining and ageing population?

The reality of the situation is illustrated by the following:

Australia’s population grew to 27.5 million by March 2025 (105 000 was the natural increase, and there were 31900 net immigrants).

Both major parties talk about limiting migration to 180 000 per annum. This is nonsense. Most of the so-called new arrivals are already here, having overstayed visitor visas. They almost certainly have a job. This has been the case for years now, under both the Coalition and Labor Governments.

The so-called homogenous nature of Australian society disappeared fifty years ago with the abandonment of the White Australia Policy.

Surely, a bipartisan approach to this critical issue, vital to Australia’s future, is what is needed now, rather than parties just trying to score points off each other.

Does Australia want a declining and aging population or a vibrant, dynamic growing Country?